Saturday, October 8

Delphi on the Battle over Ref. C: Pro Side Needs More Money To Win

Solid analysis by Mile High Delphi on the Ref. C & D campaigns.
Some members of the Colorado political prognosticati believe that since the Vote Yes on C and D campaign has out raised the Vote No on C side (by dramatic margins in fact) then Referenda C and D have a better chance of passing. Looking back at the most recent off year election it appears that the Pro C side may quickly face diminishing returns, especially as extra issue groups, such as the Backbone Issues Committee and the Independence institute, pile on.

As things currently stand now, the main anti C issue group Vote No; It's Your Dough has spent $129,550 as of 10/03. This doesn't take into account hundreds of thousands of dollars in adds by ally groups.

As of 9/19 (they are late on filing their 9/19 report) the main pro C issue group Vote Yes on C & D has spent $3,141,000. That is a margin of 24-1.

However, estimates are that the Independence Institute has purchased $400,000 of radio ads that basically blast Referendum C, and that the allied issue groups have probably spent another $250,000. The best estimate we have at this time is that the total amount the allied groups has spent is probably close to $750,000. That brings the margin down to 4-1, not enough to pass an initiative in an off year.
The point is that money doesn't do everything. To me, it is evident that the truth about C & D is getting out there, and people know better. History has shown us that allowing the government to spend more money does not mean better return on that investment. The money is better spent if it's left in the pockets of the citizens.

Here is the final word from Mile High Adelphi--real good news for "vote no, It's your dough" campaign.
If you are a supporter of Referendum C you need to understand this, right now C probably is a 5-1 or a 6-1 underdog. Absent a huge GOTV and a media blitz in the last few weeks of the campaign (read as outspending the allies by a factor of 10-1) C will lose.
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